Is Winning the Lottery Your Only Hope?


People buy lottery tickets in the belief that winning will improve their life in some way, whether by bringing them happiness or buying them a new car or paying off their mortgage. Despite the fact that one in a million is an extremely long shot, people are drawn to the game and invest billions each year. It’s not that they are irrational or don’t understand the odds; rather, they have come to this logical conclusion that for better or worse, the lottery, however improbable, is their only hope.

Almost every lottery has the same basic ingredients: a ticket, a prize, and a means to collect, pool, and disperse the money paid as stakes. Most lotteries are run by states or private companies, with the proceeds of each drawing going to a pool for the prizes. Costs of running the lottery, as well as a percentage for profit and promotion, are then deducted from the prize pool before it is distributed to winners.

The term “lottery” probably comes from the Dutch word lot, which is a combination of Old Dutch lot (“fate”) and legere (“drawing”). The first recorded lotteries took place in the Low Countries in the fifteenth century, raising funds to build town fortifications and help the poor. The modern state lottery began in the nineteen sixties, when growing awareness of all the money to be made in gambling combined with a crisis in state funding. Inflation, the cost of the Vietnam War, and a population boom made it increasingly difficult for states to balance their budgets without either raising taxes or cutting services.

Lotteries sold themselves as a solution, promising to float most of a state’s budget. But Cohen’s research suggests that this claim was always misleading, at least in the short term. In the long term, states rely on lottery revenue to cover only a fraction of their overall tax base, with the rest coming from property and sales taxes.

As Cohen explains, when a jackpot grows to a newsworthy amount, it drives ticket sales. In addition, it gives lottery games free publicity on news websites and television. But when the jackpot drops to an uninteresting level, so do sales, and it is often difficult for a lottery to make a profit from smaller prizes.

As a result, the vast majority of lottery revenue is generated by a relatively small number of players. This is why most states spend more on marketing their games than on education, for example. It’s also why states are reluctant to cut back on their advertising, even as they ramp up their sports betting operations — they don’t want to lose those valuable lottery dollars. In other words, the only way to get rich by playing the lottery is to be one of those incredibly rare winners. But most of those who play the lottery go bankrupt within a few years. So if you’re thinking of buying a ticket, keep in mind that there’s a much better use for that money.